President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney finish their debate in Denver on Wednesday, October 3. View behind-the-scene photos of debate preparations.
Editor's note: David Gergen is a senior political analyst for CNN and has been an adviser to four presidents. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service and director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Follow him on Twitter.
(CNN) -- What an upset!
Before the first presidential debate, voters were telling CNN by nearly a 2-1 margin that they expected an Obama victory. Many commentators were ready to hold a coronation for the president. Now, by more than a 2-1 margin, voters who watched the debate are saying that Mitt Romney won it -- and we have a horse race on our hands.
Opinion: Debate coach -- Obama, heat up; Romney, stay cool
Romney was one of the two big surprises of the night. His performance was head and shoulders above anything he has displayed so far. He drove the debate, had a coherent message that focused on jobs, showed a superior command of detail, was empathetic toward people hurting, and looked the president in the eye. He came in hungry.
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President Obama was the other surprise. He was unusually flat, failed to go after Romney on point after point (47%, Bain, corporations are people, etc., etc.), rarely looked Romney in the eye, and seemed annoyed.
My hunch is that no one has talked to him like this since his election (except maybe Bibi Netanyahu), and he was shocked that Romney denied he had ever proposed a huge cut in taxes (which he has). The net result was that Obama seemed to withdraw emotionally just when he should have launched a counteroffensive.
Opinion: Romney wasn't stellar, but Obama fell short
We won't know until the dust settles whether Romney has truly shaken up the race. After all, John Kerry as challenger beat President George W. Bush in debates and lost the election.
In this case, Democrats are already charging foul against Romney for misstating facts. More to the point, we know from the past that incumbent presidents often come into a first debate a little complacent, lose, and then come roaring back in a second encounter (think Reagan 1984). Obama is highly competitive and will surely be loaded for bear next time.
But the first night goes down as a big upset for Romney -- and it is now more likely that this race will go down to the wire.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of David Gergen.
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Romney stands with his wife, Ann, and family following the first presidential debate.
President Obama kisses first lady Michelle Obama after the debate Wednesday. It took place on their 20th wedding anniversary.
Jim Leher of PBS moderates the 90-minute debate on Wednesday. It was the candidates' first time debating face to face.
Obama defended his record and challenged his rival's proposals.
Romney was more aggressive Wednesday in criticizing Obama's vision.
People watch the debate at Galapagos Art Space in Brooklyn, New York.
The event was expected to draw the candidates' largest nationwide audience to date.
Romney answers a question from the moderator.
Obama argues his view. Both candidates said the other's proposals won't work.
Michelle Obama listens to the debate.
Romney said Obama has failed to bring down high unemployment and get the economy surging again.
Obama reacts to Romney's remarks on Wednesday.
Obama listens during the debate in Denver.
Romney, who has been unable to catch the president in most polls to date, sought to generate enthusiasm for a change in the White House.
Romney's shadow is projected beneath text from the Declaration of Independence at the University of Denver's Magness Arena.
The first of three presidential debates focused on domestic issues: the economy, health care and the role of government.
Obama and Mitt Romney clashed over the economy on Wednesday.
Romney speaks during Wednesday night's debate. The candidate called for a new economic path.
Obama called for "economic patriotism" and said Romney's plan of tax cuts for the rich failed before.
Romney and Obama wave to the crowd at the start of the presidential debate.
Obama greets Romney on Wednesday.
The candidates meet on stage less than five weeks before Election Day.
Obama and Romney shake hands Wednesday night.
The presidential race has been dominated so far by negative advertising as both camps try to frame the election to their advantage.
Leher takes the stage Wednesday. It's his 12th time moderating a presidential debate.
Michelle Obama points to Lehrer before the start of the debate.
Ann Romney and first lady Michelle Obama hug on Wednesday.
The candidates wives were in attendance for the most highly anticipated campaign event to date.
Michelle Obama sits with White House Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett, right.
Rapper Will.i.am, left, speaks with Jarrett before the debate on Wednesday. 
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