From...

April 29, 1999
Web posted at: 5:17 p.m. EDT (2117 GMT)

by Jeanette Borzo

PARIS (IDG) -- By 2002, more than 90 percent of all U.S. desktop PCs and servers will host a Java Virtual Machine, according to an industry analyst speaking at the Java Enterprise Solutions Symposium (JESS '99) developers' conference here.

But how Java will be used on all those computers is changing, according to a presentation made by Daryl Plummer, vice president and research director of applications-development tools at Gartner Group.

Programmers are starting to use Java less to develop client applications and more for server-side applications, "moving from more simplified applications to more mission-critical applications," Plummer said.

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"Through 2001, pure Java applications will be limited in the amount of transaction support they offer for high-end computing, but they will provide mission-critical support in more than 60 percent of deployed applications," Plummer added.

Java all grown up

In 2004 -- by which time Java will have matured into an "adult" application -- more than 60 percent of large U.S. corporations will use Java to develop their critical applications, Plummer predicted. He added that C++, Visual Basic, and Java will be the three enduring programming languages in the near future.

Worldwide adoption of Java is slower than U.S. adoption, Plummer said, but he added that European projects developed with Java are "more serious."

"In Europe you see a stronger base of knowledge for the technology than you see in the U.S.," Plummer explained.

Sun relaxes grip

As Java's popularity grows, Sun is relaxing its grip on Java while other companies -- such as IBM -- are increasing their commitment to the environment and programming language, Plummer said.

Sun Microsystems President Ed Zander presented a similar message in his own presentation. "Java is not a Sun product anymore -- the investment the industry is making in Java far exceeds anything Sun is doing," Zander said.